Tech Notes

My notes on Statistics, Big Data, Cloud Computing, Cyber Security

Tag Archives: prediction

Bootstrapping, Bagging, Boosting and Random Forest

To understand bootstrap, suppose it were possible to draw repeated samples (of the same size) from the population of interest, a large number of times. Then, one would get a fairly good idea about the sampling distribution of a particular statistic from the collection of its values arising from these repeated samples. But, that does not make sense as it would be too expensive and defeat the purpose of a sample study. The purpose of a sample study is to gather information cheaply in a timely fashion. The idea behind bootstrap is to use the data of a sample study at hand as a “surrogate population”, for the purpose of approximating the sampling distribution of a statistic; i.e. to resample (with replacement) from the sample data at hand and create a large number of “phantom samples” known as bootstrap samples. The sample summary is then computed on each of the bootstrap samples (usually a few thousand). A histogram of the set of these computed values is referred to as the bootstrap distribution of the statistic. Read more of this post

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Decision Trees and Prediction with trees

A decision tree is a kind of flowchart — a graphical representation of the process for making a decision or a series of decisions. Read more of this post

Prediction Study Design

Steps in building a prediction
1. Find the right data
2. Define your error rate
3. Split data into:

  • Training
  • Testing
  • Validation (Optional)

4. On the training set pick features
5. On the training set pick prediction function
6. On the training set cross-validate
7. If no validation – apply 1x to test set
8. If validation – apply to test set and refine
9. If validation – apply 1x to validation Read more of this post

Logistic Regression

Odds, Odds Ratios, and Logit

Odds are actually the ratio of two probabilities… Read more of this post